JP Morgan lead analyst Samik Chatterjee thinks Apple could bring in $6 billion in revenue from mobile advertising in 2025.

Market projections. According to Apple Insider, the mobile advertising market is expected to exceed $400 billion in 2024, which is about a 33% increase from the $288 billion it claimed in 2021.

Privacy concerns and speculations. The release of iOS14 and the introduction of App Tracking Transparency (ATT) caused a supposed $10 billion in lost revenue for Meta. Chatterjee mentions in the article that this change “drove headwinds for incumbent advertising platforms,” and we can’t help but wonder if this was Apple’s plan all along.

Chatterjee goes on to predict that the headwinds will lead to a reallocation of advertising funds – many of which will be spent on Apple Search Ads, which directly benefits their advertising business and revenue.

Earlier this month we reported on a new pricing model for Apple’s search campaigns, Cost Per Tap (CPT). The new model will replace the less popular CPM campaign standard, and reflect the typical cost-per-click model that advertisers are familiar with on other platforms such as Google and Facebook. This change could be an early indication that Apple has big plans for its ad network.

The future of Apple advertising. There is no word on whether Apple has plans to implement an audience network. However, given their large network of users, it wouldn’t be completely out of their wheelhouse. The largest slice of the Apple pie, however, still comes from Apple Search Ads, which Chatterjee says will account for about $4.1 billion in revenue in 2025.

Why we care. The implementation of iOS14 didn’t stop Apple from tracking our data, it just stopped them from sharing it. Given Chatterjee’s ad revenue predictions, we wonder if Apple really prioritizes privacy and customer experience, or if they have other plans to take over the digital ad landscape. With 825 million paid subscriptions and a user base of over 1 billion, they certainly have the leverage.